13.1.09

Buy Reliance Capital Target:600


1 YEAR GRAPH PATTERN


3 MONTH GRAPH PATTERN


we recommend reliance capital for buy.
1 MONTH GRAPH PATTERN
FOR SHORT TERM

we recommend reliance capital for buy.

1.From graph pattern strong support is appearing between 400-450 lvls.

2.If there is some rally seen in the nifty then we may surely see an uptrend in this stock upto 550 lvls.

3.the stock is just near to its 52 year low till now date it may soon come above it.

FOR LONG TERM PROSPECTIVE WE SEE GOOD PROSPECTIVE IN COMPANY

1.company's turnover was 6757.20cr on 30-Sep-2008 and 3849.30cr on 30-Sep-2007 whick is increment of 75.54% on YoY

2.INTEREST---->> 2875.10 on 30-Sep-2008 534.80 on 30-Sep-2007... 437.60% Change

3. PAT INCREASED YoY by 12% 410.00 30-Sep-2008 364.50 30-Sep-2007

Share Statistics
As On 31-Mar-2008 31-Mar-2007 31-Mar-2006
EPS(Rs) 41.38 26.16 23.98
CFPS(Rs) 42.07 26.45 25.01
Book Value(rs) 243.96 208.98 181.66
DPS(Rs) 5.47 3.48 3.18

12.1.09

Kotak Securities maintains a buy call on Tata Power with a target of Rs 1140

Kotak Securities maintains a buy call on Tata Power with a target of Rs 1140, reports CNBC Awaaz. It is expected to give a return of 52%, it adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 726, down 3% on the BSE.

10.1.09

How to avoid a Satyam in your portfolio

Ever heard of the phrase pump & dump? What about blab & grab? Well, you wouldn't have lost money on a company like Satyam if you knew the meaning of these terms.

According to Clear Capital, a subsidiary of Noble Group, these are some of the most common methods used by the promoter to drive up the share price of the company.

All you have to do is to see if there are patterns in a company's share price profile where favourable news flow from the promoter is followed by a rise in stock trading volumes, entry of reputed institutional investors, the stock hitting a 12-month high and then the promoter selling his holding. Well, it is almost as predictable like Bollywood flick, right? That is pump & dump for you.

Now, over to blab & grab. This is how it works: the promoter announces a new venture related to a hot theme, not surprisingly unrelated to the promoter's company's core competence. For example, a consumer goods company entering real estate. The objective of the exercise is to raise fresh funds on the pretext of the new venture.

Once the funds are raised, the promoter sells the holding which he had acquired in anticipation of a rise in stock prices. Typically, the new venture then gets postponed due to delays in land acquisition, problems in nailing down the supply chain, difficulty in reaching financial closure with banks, and so on. Following the announcement of the postponement, the share price usually falls sharply.

The next technique is called expense manipulation, deployed by promoters to pull out cash from the company's books, especially during bear markets. The most common technique is to suck out cash by inflating "other expenses" or "sales and distribution expenses" or "miscellaneous expenses".

It is also time you realise that accountants are getting creative. According to the report, more than 100 companies in the BSE 500 were resorting to creative accounting to flatter their results. Some of the 'creative tricks used are revenue and cash manipulation. More importantly, the report says that Nifty 50 companies were just as likely as small-mid cap companies to have suspect accounting practices.

Now, the real shocker. Guess what the companies did when the Clear Capital approached them to talk about their aggressive financial statements? The companies didn't even bother to deny any wrongdoing. Instead they threatened about the reputational damage to Noble if it went public with the information.

The report says that if you find anything wrong with the company, the best thing would be to call the management. This is because many of these promoters are so convinced of their invincibility that they might not even bother denying that their books are cooked, according to the report.

Here are some other smoke signals which you can watch out for:

*Recording revenue ahead of time: At least 30 companies in the BSE 500 are using aggressive revenue recognition techniques. This is evident from the deterioration in their "cash flows from operating activities" in spite of a rise in EBITDA, suggesting early booking of revenues.

*Booking fictitious sales: 60 firms in the BSE 500 seem to have booked "sales," which might have arisen from investment income or other income.

*Expense manipulation: At least 10 companies in the BSE 500 seem to have shifted expenses away from the current period by significantly reducing depreciation rates.

*Cash manipulation: At least 15 companies in the BSE 500 which have disbursed the bulk of their loans and advances to companies in which Directors have an interest.

*Invisible restatements of prior periods: When summed up the revenues and profits shown in the quarterly results of firms and compared them with the FY08 results, it was found that at least 25 firms in the BSE 500 had profits shown in the full year results.

Who is buying Satyam shares?

MUMBAI: Satyam was clearly the focus of all speculative action on the stock markets on Friday, before the bourses recessed for the weekend. Rumours about who could be buying into the stock flew thick and fast as 30 crore of Satyam shares changed hands. Since most institutional investors had dumped Satyam shares over the past two trading sessions, market players were eager to know who bought those shares.

Although a definite answer to this is possible only after the settlements are completed next week, the rumours persisted. On Friday, Satyam's stock on the NSE touched an all-time low of Rs 6.30 and closed at Rs 23.75, down over 40% on the day. Of the 30 crore shares traded, about 8 crore shares, or about 12% of the company's total shareholding , were marked for delivery.

While market players speculated if construction major L&T was buying additional shares of the troubled IT major, names of two other corporate houses one based in Mumbai with interests in telecom, financial services, power & infrastructure and entertainment, and the other in Kolkata were doing the rounds.

Market players were, however, divided if any corporate house would touch Satyam now. For some, the main deterrents are the imminent legal cases in India as well as the US class action lawsuits against Satyam and its directors, head of a domestic financial services company said. ‘‘Probably corporates would look at buying only parts of the company's businesses but not the whole of the company. Taking over the whole of the company could also mean taking on its now undefinable liabilities'' the company official said.

However, with Satyam's stock price at sub-Rs 25 level and the company valued at about Rs 1,600 crore, there could be some bravehearts, including seasoned speculators and arbitrageurs to bet on a turnaround, the head of institutional services at a local brokerage said.

‘‘If the day's low was Rs 6.30, the average price for some could be in the Rs 10-15 region. At that level you could always find someone willing to take a bet on a definitive turnaround in the company and hence multiple profits,'' said the official. Another head of a local brokerage with substantial presence in the retail broking space also confirmed that some of the company's clients were buying into the counter.

If past instances are anything to go by, then such speculative activity is possible. In 2004, when RBI announced the merger of hugely mismanaged Global Trust Bank with PSU major Oriental Bank of Commerce, the stock price of GTB had fallen to as low as 78 paise. At that time, it was almost clear that GTB shareholders will not get anything from the takeover by OBC.

Satyam still has many buyers as it plunges to a new low


Mumbai, Jan. 9 Hyderabad is the cynosure of all eyes and the woes of Satyam Computer Services Ltd are far from over. But, at the dealing rooms of brokerage houses in Mumbai, it was business as usual at the counters, with many cursing their luck for not picking up Satyam stock at Rs 6.30 during trading hours.

Of course, there were an equal number blaming their stars for the misfortune that had befallen them, while offloading whatever their holdings in Satyam were.

Though brokerage houses had washed their hands off the stock on Wednesday, their clientele could not do so as easily with the stock forming a part of their portfolios.

Unaffected were the day traders, chirpy and boisterous as ever, eager to make a quick buck in the falling stock, which hit a momentous low of Rs 6.30, before closing 40 per cent down at Rs 23.75.

It was a war of words at a brokerage house in South Mumbai. A broker chided his client for frequently changing tack, pointing out that he would have netted a sizable margin if only his words were heeded. “See, you did not permit me to buy when it was Rs 6.30, as by now, you would have made a decent margin,” he screamed at the top of his voice over phone.

At the next terminal, a day trader retorted that trading Satyam stocks was foolishness, while trying to gain attention of others all around. Surprisingly, he was punching a buy order for his client.

Though brokerage houses swore on Wednesday evening to keep away from the stock, advice kept flowing in to the dealing rooms - of course, unofficial. Interestingly, many analysts said that they did not hold any view on the stock as the figures furnished thus far had no credibility.

By late evening, many brokerage houses were vociferous in saying that Rs 7,136 crore or no scam, the stock at Rs 6.30 was a steal.

However, the word on the street was that the risks were as not high as the reward and there was still some steam left in the Satyam bogey.

On a sober tone, Mr Ketan Malkan, Vice-President, India Infoline, said the risk reward ratio holds good for a price of Rs 10 or Rs 20 – nothing much to lose and plenty to gain if a revival came about.

“This is the reason why retail investors and largely day traders are putting their money in the stock,” he explained.

Some day traders were more forthcoming: “Woh ab toh bas satta hai, paise banao aur nikal jao (no fundamentals, nothing now, it is just like gambling; just make money and exit).

On the stock exchanges, as high as 30 crore shares changed hands on Friday alone. The deliverable ratio of the stock on the NSE was 27.7 per cent and 21 per cent on the BSE. The difference between the ask and bid price was mostly between five and 20 paise, with orders being executed in seconds.

On Friday, the Satyam scrip opened at the intra-day high of Rs 32, while it fell to a low of Rs 11.50 before closing at Rs 23.85 on the BSE.

The volumes on the BSE were as high as 81 million shares, while on NSE, they were more than 215 million.

On the NSE, the stock opened at the day’s high of Rs 36, while it dropped to a low of Rs 6.30 before closing at Rs 23.75.

While Satyam dragged the Sensex down on Wednesday by seven per cent or over 750 points, the sentiment improved on Friday with the 30 share index gaining 180 points, buoyed by lower inflation numbers

Axis Bank net rises 63% on strong income flows



Our Bureau

Mumbai, Jan. 9 Axis Bank reported a net profit of 63 per cent at Rs 501 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2009, against Rs 307 crore in the corresponding quarter last year.

This is the sixth quarter in a row that the bank has posted a net profit of over 60 per cent, said Dr P.J. Nayak, Chairman and CEO.

Analysts had predicted a growth of 30-35 per cent in net profit for the bank. The growth in profits is backed by strong business momentum, growth in asset size and strong fee income, Dr Nayak said.

However, he also said that the third quarter was a tough quarter because of the tight liquidity conditions and rising interest rates. As a result, the bank saw a rise in cost of funds to 6.91 per cent (5.72 per cento) and Net Interest Margin falling to 3.12 per cent (3.91 per cent).

“The NIM and cost of fund will re-equilibrate this quarter with interest rates going down,” Dr Nayak said.

The bank is targeting NIM in the range of 3.25- 3.5 per cent, this fiscal.

Good profits in treasury income helped the bank to write back Rs 147 crore provisions on its investment portfolio. Trading income rose to Rs 114 crore, up by 35 per cent from Rs 84 crore. The share of low-cost CASA deposits (current account and savings accounts) declined to 38 per cent of total deposits, against 45 per cent last year.

While credit growth was robust at 55 per cent in the third quarter, it may slow down in this fiscal, Dr Nayak said. However, with RBI infusing liquidity, the impact may not be much, he added.

The growth in retail credit has been slower than corporate credit, on account of the changing business cycle, Dr Nayak said. The share of retail assets to total assets declined marginally to 21 per cent from 25 per cent last year.

Despite the slump in capital markets, the fee income from capital markets increased by 204 per cent to Rs 304 crore (Rs 100 crore). The bank has appointed a CEO for its mutual funds and will start operations soon, Dr Nayak said.

forex derivative cases


In the two forex derivative cases against Axis Bank, the judgement has been in favour of the bank, Dr Nayak said. In both cases, the companies have gone in for further appeal.

On Friday, shares of Axis Bank closed at Rs 485.75 on the BSE, down 6.97 per cent from the previous close of Rs 522.15.